I retired from personal blogging in July 2008.
But you can find me over at http://blog.xero.com.
Just watched the Apple Keynote. Bitsy on quicktime but got most of it.
MacBook Air was cool but I think the most significant product was AppleTV - take 2.
The product has shifted entirely from an accessory for a PC download then sync to the lounge experience to a set top box that directly talks to the world. From your AppleTV you can now download movies (in HiDef) and access thousands of video podcasts and lots of other services.
The movie rentals goes international later this year. I hardly ever rent movies. By the time the kids are in bed the good movies are gone. That all changes with AppleTV take 2.
Unless movies are blocked - which it may be. I don’t need Sky movies. I’ll never set foot in a video store again. If we could get all the US TV programs I’d even question what I need anything but free NZ TV for. Why are we waiting for broadcaster to go HiDef? The content is arriving it’s just a delivery issue. That problem just got solved.
Should TVNZ just publish the 6:00 news to iTunes? Is that so crazy when Apple got every major movie studio signed up?
The direct internet connection from the Apple TV bypasses directly the existing terristial and sattelite broadcasters. It even by passes physical DVD’s. Why do I want to own a movie I watch once. iTunes is a direct competitor to Blu-Ray, HD-DVD and even standard DVD’s.
Today iTunes even delivered an iTouch Software upgrade. What is stopping me buying Mac Office 2008 over iTunes.
The iTunes grand plan is now clear. It is an Internet delivery platform and billing engine. Apple have inserted themselves into the middle of the global content industry by owning the consumer device. Starting with the iPod, and over several years now directly connected to your TV. Your viewing portal. AppleTV take 2 unlocks the investment in iTunes.
While I was watching the keynote I had an email from Telstra saying I had exceeded my monthly download limit. If this catches on it challenges our internal internet infrastructure. The broadband demands of an average NZ household just went up times 10. Here is a great example of a foreseeable but largely denied game changer that makes our internet capacity planning look woeful.
It’s a game changer and a direct threat to the incumbent broadcast model. Sky, TVNZ, Video rental shops and of course carriers -Â you have some thinking to do.
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I’ll find it hard to get excited about the Apple TV until I know for sure that the movie downloads and rentals are going to be available in NZ, and also how much they will cost. Until then it’s just iDongle.
Rod, what have you been smoking man!
Most people don’t own Macs and Apple TV for a start; in NZ or anywhere else for that matter.
Secondly and most importantly, TV is not going to be delivered over broadband by any method (downloads, streaming video) HiDef or any other format any time soon. The BBC Click technology program did a piece last year -
“One of the challenges is that the internet really isn’t set up to deliver high resolution video, and so it needs assistance, help and support to enable it to do so,” said Phill Robinson of CacheLogic.
“There are basically two exabytes of traffic that flow over the internet. We have got to that level of traffic growth over the last 20 years. It’s going to rise and quadruple over the years to eight exabytes.
He said the bandwidth that would be needed to see Desperate Housewives every week which averages 18 million users a week in the US. The bandwidth required would exceed the worldwide capacity many times over. You are 10-15 years too early most places and 40 years too early in NZ.
Also Quicktime is rubbish software, it had more bugs last year than Volkswagen. First QT bug of 2008 last Thursday.
Also Apple is a proprietary closed system; makes MS look open source. You cannot view much about iPods on Apples website with installing QT.
Do you really honestly think Rupert Murdoch is going to let Steve Jobs control the media. Jobs is the Alastair Campbell of the software business and really he delivered very little today.
Ouch Dermott….
Steve is trying to out-Amazon Amazon in terms of platform plays. Without commenting about the pipe capacity issues, Dermott is right in saying that Apple would need to open up in order to create anything even remotely close to the pre-eminent delivery platform.
Amazon has had to go elsewhere from just their selling platform to find growth and Apple will need to open up and go elsewhere to have their delivery platform win.
One thing Apple doesn’t do well is open up so I’m with Dermott in terms of the chances of this thing going gangbusters (and when I say gangbusters I mean more than just the early adopters).
1. Apple has positioned itself nicely as both the designer hardware solution and the paid content channel of choice - based on Steve Jobs’ “cool”, for now at least. Jobs is trusted more than Gates, a classic emotive branding strategy that will be studied in textbooks by biz school students for many years to come.
2. I may be naive, but I’ve always believed that the broadband issue would be solved eventually. Likewise one core OS (probably open source, even if proprietary now) will eventually win as the global standard and settle down to be hardwired (ie reliable and only changing rarely). The constant change for marginal gain will eventually be recognised for what it is - technical wanking or deliberate market churn - and who can pick which?
“and of course carriers - you have some thinking to do” - we can only cross our legs, fingers, and prey, prey, prey!! Mmmm. There’s a common theme here.
“While I was watching the keynote I had an email from Telstra saying I had exceeded my monthly download limit.”
OUCH! You guys still suffer from metered bandwidth down there? That alone might be enough to keep me from relocating to Auckland!
As a Yank who has access to all these things Apple (and owns Apple computers, an iPod and an iPhone) I’m not at all interested in Apple TV until it lets me replace my TiVO. I think the days of paying for content on demand in my living room should be pretty much over. I should note that I also don’t really care about HiDef. We use my TV mainly for Wii these days (not exactly a hidef proposition) and I really see definition is a feature, not a necessity.
I agree with the previous poster that Quicktime is ‘rubbish’ but not for any of the ancillary ’security risks’ it presents. Quicktime is rubbish because it was built a long, long time ago in Internet years, and could use a complete overhaul. It is legacy code.
Finally, I thought that the “open” vs. “closed” debate was over?! By the same logic that “nobody” uses Macs - “nobody” uses open software for their desktop OS. I’m not going to go fanboi and defend the iPhone anti-hacks, or Apple practices in total, but really - I’m not sure that an OS built on BSD or pressuring the music industry to drop DRM “makes MS look open source”.
I understand the trendy pendulum has swung away from Apple. I understand that a lot of Linux fanboi types still resent their success as UNIX on the desktop. But understand that the best way to fight hyperbole is not with more hyperbole.
I agree with Alex. Even in the US iTunes and buying/renting TV shows is pointless. For $10 a month i rent an HD DVR from my cable provider and it records my shows. We don’t watch real time TV anymore … so it is effectively an on demand TV system. For movies/tv they sell them on demand via the same device. There is no wait time as they stream them & they are about $3/$4 (HD). They have more on demand content than iTunes. Until something that is better comes along for $10 a month or less i wouldn’t change.
My 2c.
Ondemand may suit some people.
But I think the majority of people actually watch most TV as they don’t have to think about asking for something specifically.
The TV culture that we currently have is here to stay.
My bet is that the MySky, Tivo variation where I can choose to pause the current programming or delay it to a later time will be the most popular by numbers….
Most people me included are overloaded with too much choice… Also Apple is way too expensive as it charges per unit. A monthly fee for a smorgasbord of content is always going to be appeal to the majority.
Having said that there are the audio/videophile component of the population that like to choose and own content they don’t like being told what to watch. This is a very profitable sector as these people have money and can afford and even justify a mac. Apple has done a very good job catering and growing this segment of the market.
I think Apple are smart and if they keep focused on this component of the market they will remain profitable, even if they don’t convert the masses :)
I think this also has a significant bearing on the groundswell for better broadband in NZ. I think the masses will be satisfied with the content from FreeView and MySky coverage rather than a fast big broadband pipe into their house….. Its cheaper to buy a decent dish and a good decoder than to fork out for a AppleTV and then fork out for the content on a per view basis….
@Alex
Bandwidth caps are common in many countries and are a reasonable way for Providers to control customers’ consumption relative to the price of their connections:
Looks like Time Warner may be considering using bandwidth caps in the US:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080116-leaked-memo-time-warner-cable-to-trial-hard-bandwidth-caps.html
I think an interesting aspect of the keynote / apple tv announcement relevant to my field (videogames), is what impact it may have on the Xbox 360.
It seems to me like a classic Microsoft vs Apple defensive move really. Microsoft attempted to counter the ipod with the Zune. Apple steps up against the increasingly successful and touted download service of the Xbox 360 with new functionality on Apple TV.
Joystiq posted a good direct comparison of the two services today:
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/16/charted-xbox-live-video-marketplace-vs-apple-tv/
There are 10 million online registed live users now with access to ‘over 3,500 hours of content’, with over 380 million pieces of content downloaded off the platform thus far. IPTV will be rolled out shortly in the UK for BT customers on 360. http://news.cnet.co.uk/gamesgear/0,39029682,49294976,00.htm
‘leaked’ internal Microsoft Games Studio memo:
http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/takahashi/2008/01/06/meanwhile-this-xbox-360-memo-showed-up-in-my-inbox/
This all of course begs the much touted question in the games industry - when will apple make its direct game move?.. (personally I doubt they will beyond intel compatibility and current itunes / ipod game downloads)
Its also worth noting that Sony announced Tivo-esq functionality for the PS3 in August 2007 called “play tv”, that lets you schedule and record tv to the PS3’s hard drive. You can also then stream it remotely to Sony’s handheld PSP.
I was present in the keynote announcement at the European games conference Leipzig - it was memorable because for once NZ was listed as a launch country thanks to Freeview.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJQSAxqGCTU
Quicktime is rubbish? Legacy? Wrong. Sure there are security holes, as with all software. Any cursory analysis of competing technologies will show Quicktime is the most complete, well architected and extensible media container technology in existence - it’s even the container used by MPEG4. Quicktime is so well architected that the only significant change needed in the past few years was to add support for frame re-ordering. As to the bandwidth problem, carriers are increasingly enabling Multicast, which will go a very long way towards eliminating the bandwidth problems noted above.
Rod, I agree with you whole heartedly about bandwidth issues and believe that fibre to cabinent is not good enough, we should be doing fibre to house like the UK did not so long ago and Australia is about to do.
And in response to the off topic comments mentioned, DW is spot on with his Quicktime analysis. Dermott needs to understand the technology involved a little better before saying that Apple make MS look open source. Yes the software is close but the standards are open. There are two things that spot quicktime and iTunes file playing on non apple devices. DRM (not apples fault) and the fact that most of the other devices are in the dark ages. MP3 was superseded with ACC many years ago, as was MPEG2, avi, wav etc. The problem really lies in the fact that the biggest company in the fastest changing industry can’t keep up with that industry.
sigh - I do digital video for a living - mostly US cable but IPTV and broadcast too.
I think we will get video from our DSL pipes eventually, unbundling gets us part way there but we need video switch gear in the local exchange (and switched IP video from our ISP) or FTTH - I can imagine someone part funding neighborhood FTTH as a cable plant, paying for it with Sky-like TV subscription fees (but providing real HD) and part-filling the fibre with IP multicast TV (we make these boxes today)
what obviously wont work is us all expecting to be able to get our TV in real-time from the US across the pacific
More than ten years after the commercial internet flexed its nascent muscles the time has seriously come to ask…what’s so special about 6.00pm for news. Who gets home in time for that appointment. Newspapers have found new relevance for me - not on paper, but if I want to know what is happening as it happens,Granny Herald - who knew?