I retired from personal blogging in July 2008.
But you can find me over at http://blog.xero.com.
My take on the big themes of 2004 …
1. The rise (again) of Apple. The tag line for the iMac Launch said it all. “From the people that brought you the iPod”. Seeing the queue at the launch of the Apple London store showed how when you only have a few points market share and people “love your stuff” the only way is up. See the AAPL chart below.
I sold at $23.
2. The leveling off of Microsoft. I’m a fan of MS and have been treated very well over many years but I can’t help but notice that the size of their ship (no make that size of the fleet) makes it really difficult for them to avoid the laws of physics. Some of the big issues that come from running a shop that does everything are now coming home to roost. Exchange roadmap in chaos, SQL 2005 and Visual Studio 2005 delayed again. Passport dropped, Key people moving on etc. MS will still be huge of course but their big challenge is how to convince business it needs Longhorn enough to take the upgrade pain.
3. Telco’s wake up on Wifi. No one’s making money but they didn’t want the little guys to get ahead. Cheap model now screwed and we’re at Telco pricing for hotspots (£6 per hour). 3G over GSM is having techical issues so a bit of investment money looking towards WiMax.
4. Services industry consolidates. Acquistions a plenty. Some individuals made a lot of money this year. So 2005 will see the talent fragment back out into small firms (armed with a bit of cash).
5. New Zealand, New Thinking. Networking of the past few years is paying off as NZ companies start working together to get offshore wins. UK is the new beachhead of choice.
6. Market heading up. The 2nd half of 2004 saw IT spend really take off. 2005 may be huge. The companies that made it through the past 2-3 hard years well placed to boom this coming year.
7. Regionally thinking. People returning back from overseas are looking outside Auckland and Wellington. There’s a bit of action to be had, cafe’s coming up to speed and regional broadband.
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